Residential Demand Is Growing Faster Than Supply, Declining Sales!

 

The establishment of the new government, and in particular the Central Bank’s interest rate decision and enthusiasts waiting for management of the economy has changed that has led to remain in the shadow of two major data released earlier in the day.

 

The establishment of the new government , and in particular the Central Bank ‘s interest rate decision and enthusiasts waiting for management of the economy has changed that has led to remain in the shadow of two major data released earlier in the day. TurkStat, announced two important data on the construction sector; home sales and building use and building permits issued by municipalities permit.

 

First, let’s talk about the sales. Housing sales in the first quarter did not go bad . But in April it has been a disappointment so to speak. Total sales fell to 119 thousand from 106 thousand. sales in the first four months of this decline was due to remain below last year. Last year, 417 thousand residential been sold four months of this year, but the sales was 410 thousand.

 

First and second-hand sales fell almost at the same rate in April. However, as in April, as a large divergence emerged in January-April sales in mortgages and other details.

 

In mortgage sales in April showed a decline in excess of 27 percent. Mortgage sales fell 20 percent in the first four months. other non- mortgage sales remained almost at the same level compared to last year in April, showed a 10 percent increase in the first four months of sales.

 

Citizens literally “do not take now ” is called
Housing is a terrific increase in supply. It is already possible to observe every day. Televisions are not passed through advertisements in the newspapers about it. Especially luxury housing construction continues in full swing. But there are difficulties. not expanded to meet demand supply obviously.

 

Citizens tend to avoid as much as possible from the mortgage purchases. Evidently ‘s current high interest rates and the expected rate will occur in the future. Today’s interest rates in the opposite direction and if found reasonable expectation, is that this can not be attacked over credit terms will increase interest rates, though not had…

 

I wonder if the loans have high interest to use the most important factor in avoiding or interest at Is expected to go on sale; because of two distinct concepts.

 

Do interest rates will be reduced, say it should be reduced, so bring a lot of common language , the works for today stagnant, not turning Is it a factor that led to deceleration in housing sales… the head of the Citizens’ every day’ interest high, should fall, the market should be opened, the construction sector should breathe ” If filled with ideas, citizens ” What he would use high-interest credit “Did not I start thinking…

 

Moreover, while it is a bubble in housing prices, and one day this bubble will surely burst views were expressed.

 

So on the one hand citizens ‘interest high, now is not at all a good time to buy housing “is given a hand” prices are high, wait a minute” happening has said.

 

Hence the need to wonder too much show and deceleration of the decline in housing sales.

 

Housing supply in case
According to the impression of a very large increase in the number of apartments under the first sight of building permits issued by municipalities in the first quarter last year to this year it is waking up. Numbers like that, but you need to evaluate, taking into account the decline in the last year.

 

If the number of apartments under the occupancy permit is not playing nearly the last two years. We see a level of 100 thousand remaining under 2014. But the important thing now. In the first quarter of this year he was given permission to use 161 thousand apartments. he is not very accurate, compared to a one, this year the number of apartments sold in the first quarter, first hand, considering that about 141 thousand, which added to the inventory revealed that some of the apartments building permit.

 

That supply is growing much faster than demand, sales are also declining and even accelerating growth in this stock. Rang alarm bells in the construction industry has long been in, ever so closely, and we probably never heard the sound of a powerful…

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    fatma Written by:

    Fatma Şahin fatmasahin@istanbulinvestments.com

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